Will Tropical Storm Erin Be Florida’s First Hurricane of 2025?
Update as of Wednesday, August 13, 2025 — 10:00 AM EDT
Tropical Storm Erin is moving west at about 20 mph in the central Atlantic with sustained winds near 45 mph. Forecasters expect it to strengthen into a hurricane by Friday and possibly reach major hurricane status over the weekend. The storm is projected to pass north of the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the British Virgin Islands before turning northward, likely avoiding the Bahamas and the U.S. mainland, though it could still cause dangerous surf and rip currents. The NHC is also monitoring a disturbance in the Bay of Campeche with a 20% chance of development that could bring rain to eastern Mexico and parts of Texas later this week (AP, Washington Post, Statesman).
Update as of Tuesday, August 12, 2025 — 13:00 PM EDT
Brewing west of Cabo Verde, Tropical Storm Erin is currently hovering over the Atlantic Ocean, according to the National Hurricane Center. It is predicted to become the season’s first major hurricane, and could gather momentum to reach this status as soon as the coming weekend (Saturday, 8.16.2025), according to the National Weather Service. The storm was officially named on Monday morning.
Given the forty-five mph sustained winds within the tropical storm, experts are forecasting Erin will head to the northeast of Puerto Rico, eventually touching down on the southeastern tip of the U.S. within a week. The NWS is predicting rip currents and larger swells gathering across the area.
More Details About Growing Tropical Storm Erin
Yale Climate Conditions reports that the tropical storm had a “small but well-defined circulation, as detected by wind data” and that “wind shear is light to moderate (around 10 knots).” This is important, because the website notes that “emerging tropical systems often benefit from nighttime processes that help showers and thunderstorms” maximize impact.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has already urged advanced preparations for those in the region, predicting an “above-normal hurricane season” as we enter the peak time for hurricane watchers. According to the institution, “The likelihood of above-normal activity is 50%, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and a 15% chance of a below-normal season.”
Key messages to this point emanating from the National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center note that while it is still on the early side to fully understand the potential impact of Erin, the “risk has increased for Erin to move closer to” the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend.
The Centers are urging home and property owners to ensure hurricane and major storm preparedness plans are in place and people are prepared for the potential hurricane to touch down on land.
